Market Dashboards

Arabica futures prices are the global benchmark traded on ICE (Intercontinental Exchange). Price drivers (up): Brazilian drought/frost, supply shortage, ICE inventory decline, USD weakness. Price drivers (down): Good harvest outlook, demand slowdown, USD strength. Levels above 300¢/lb are historically high, significantly increasing costs for roasters and buyers.

USD/BRL exchange rate determines Brazilian coffee export competitiveness and farmer selling incentives. Weak Real (rate↑): Higher USD income for Brazilian farmers → encourages exports → downward pressure on futures. Strong Real (rate↓): Less export incentive → farmers hold back sales → reduced supply may push prices up. Brazil produces ~40% of world Arabica, making this rate a key variable for price forecasting.

CFTC Money Manager Net Long shows directional bets by hedge funds and speculators. Positive (+): Long positions > Short positions → market expects price increase. Negative (-): Short positions > Long positions → betting on decline. Warning: Extreme positions (+50K or below -30K) can trigger short-covering rallies or profit-taking selloffs leading to price reversals.

NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) measures plant health via satellite, tracking coffee tree conditions. Seasonal significance: • Aug-Oct (Flowering): NDVI decline → poor flowering → potential yield reduction for next year (26 crop). • Nov-Feb (Fruit development): Low NDVI → poor cherry development → reduced yield & quality. • Mar-Jul (Harvest): NDVI reflects already-determined crop; limited price impact. Gray band shows 2010-2023 historical range; values outside indicate weather anomalies.