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Hormuz Crisis Lifts Arabica to 7-Week High Before Record Brazil Crop Forecasts Trigger Reversal — Reuters Poll Sees Year-End at 225¢
The coffee futures market experienced extreme intraweek volatility this week as geopolitical risk and supply fundamentals pulled prices in opposing directions. May arabica settled at 301.70¢ on Friday, having touched a 7-week high of 319.50¢ on Tuesday before surrendering gains on Thursday and Friday.
The weekly pattern was a sharp V-shaped rally followed by a full reversal. Early in the week, Brazilian farmers withholding supply in anticipation of higher prices tightened the cash market. The Strait of Hormuz blockade compounded supply concerns, triggering a +3.96% (+12.15¢) surge on Tuesday. However, Thursday's release of Marex's record 75.9M bag forecast for Brazil's 2026/27 crop sparked a -2.67% (-8.45¢) selloff, with an additional -1.93% decline on Friday.
Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Following US-Israeli military strikes on Iran beginning February 28, Iran's IRGC has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz. Commercial vessel traffic has plunged over 95%, and major carriers including Maersk, MSC, and CMA CGM have suspended Persian Gulf services. Emergency freight surcharges of $800+ per container have been imposed, with war-risk insurance premiums reaching multi-decade highs. Logistics costs for coffee importers and roasters are rising sharply.
The week's most significant development was Marex Group's Thursday projection of a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop at 75.9 million bags. This exceeds last week's Sucafina estimate of 75.4M bags and StoneX's earlier-month figure of 75.3M bags — all representing approximately +15.5% growth year-over-year.
A Reuters poll of 11 industry analysts, published March 27, reinforced the bearish medium-term consensus. The median forecast for Brazil's 2026/27 crop was 74 million bags — 10 million more than the 2025/26 season. Respondents projected year-end arabica futures averaging 225¢/lb, roughly 27% below Thursday's close of 307.65¢. Robusta was forecast at $2,500/tonne by year-end, 30.5% below current levels.
However, near-term supply dynamics tell a different story. Brazilian farmers are withholding supply, hoping for a price recovery. According to Safras & Mercados, pre-sales of the 2026/27 crop stand at just 8% of production potential — well below the 17% historical average. With futures trading below farmer expectations, forward sales remain suppressed.
The Core Paradox: A record supply surplus is projected for 2026/27 (~8.7M bag surplus), yet the near-term physical market remains tight due to farmer holding, Hormuz logistics disruption, and low pre-sale commitments. This divergence between medium-term bearish fundamentals and near-term cash tightness is the root cause of this week's extreme intraday swings.
All respondents in the Reuters survey agreed on a substantial production increase for 2026/27 Brazil. The consensus global surplus of approximately 8.7 million bags would represent a dramatic shift from the modest surplus of ~1 million bags in 2025/26. Analysts cautioned, however, about frost risk during the Brazilian winter (affecting the 2027/28 crop) and Middle East-driven cost inflation across the supply chain.
Rabobank's Carlos Mera noted that while the Hormuz situation could affect fertilizer prices, transport costs, and roasting costs, current coffee prices more than cover production expenses — making it unlikely that farmers would cut back on inputs. Vietnam's crop was forecast at 31 million bags for 2026/27, broadly in line with the current season.
Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported Jan-Feb 2026 coffee exports rose 14% year-over-year to 366,000 MT. Full-year 2025 exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 MMT, and 2025/26 production is forecast at a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4M bags), up 6% y/y. Expanding robusta supply continues to pressure London ICE futures.
Meanwhile, Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais received just 14.1mm of rainfall last week — only 45% of the historical average. While cumulative rainfall remains adequate to support crop development, below-average precipitation during the grain-filling stage warrants monitoring.
According to Cecafe, Brazil's February green coffee exports fell approximately 23.5% year-over-year to 2.6 million bags. Cumulative Jan-Feb exports totaled 5.41 million bags, down 27.3% y/y. For the current crop year (Jul 2025–Feb 2026), exports reached 26.04 million bags, a 22.6% decline from the prior period — though export revenues rose 5.3% to $10.3 billion, reflecting higher unit prices.
ICE arabica certified stocks climbed to 585,621 bags as of Wednesday — a 6-month high and a 48% recovery from the November 18 low of 396,513 bags. However, stocks remain roughly half of year-ago levels (~1M bags). The steady rebuilding of certified inventories is gradually undermining the market's "inventory depletion" narrative.
In contrast, ICE robusta stocks fell to 4,127 lots on Friday — a 3.25-month low. The divergent trajectories underscore differing supply dynamics across the two markets. Declining robusta stocks may partly reflect Hormuz-related logistics disruptions affecting shipments from Vietnam and Indonesia.
CFTC data as of March 17 shows non-commercial net longs expanded to +18,594 contracts, up 3,605 from the prior week. Longs increased by 3,427 contracts while shorts edged down 178. Open interest rose to 173,683 contracts (+6,612 w/w).
This represents a meaningful recovery from the mid-February trough of just 2,866 contracts, confirming speculative re-engagement on the long side following the Hormuz crisis. The Disaggregated report shows managed money at 136,614 long vs. 334,753 short — still in a net-short posture, though shorts declined by 13,767 contracts (covering) week-over-week.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis, triggered by US-Israeli military operations against Iran on February 28, has introduced multi-layered cost pressures into the coffee supply chain. Commercial traffic through the strait has fallen by more than 95%, with major container lines halting Persian Gulf services entirely.
While coffee trade routes primarily bypass the strait (running through the Atlantic and Pacific), the indirect impacts are considerable. Brent crude has surpassed $100/barrel, elevating bunker fuel and transport costs across all maritime lanes. War-risk insurance premiums have reached generational highs. Fertilizer prices — particularly for products originating from Qatar and Saudi Arabia — have spiked, potentially raising mid-term production costs. The concurrent resumption of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea (from February 28) has further compounded Asia-Europe logistics disruptions.
The market is currently caught between two opposing forces. Medium-term surplus expectations cap the upside above 300¢, while Hormuz-driven logistics costs and Brazilian farmer withholding support the 250–280¢ floor. This week's sharp reversal from Tuesday's 7-week high (319.50¢) to Friday's close at 301.70¢ encapsulates this structural tension.
The Reuters poll consensus of year-end arabica at 225¢ implies roughly 25% further downside from current levels. However, this projection may not fully account for the possibility of a prolonged Hormuz blockade. Analysts flagged frost risk, geopolitical disruptions, and low inventory levels as key upside uncertainties.
Technical View: The weekly chart is developing a potential double-top reversal, with the $277.25 neckline/support as the key level. A confirmed break below projects a measured move toward $197.45. Daily signals remain Strong Sell. Backwardation (May–Dec spread ~27¢) reflects near-term tightness but is gradually narrowing. Bullish divergence on RSI and stochastic indicators suggests a possible technical bounce from the 280¢ area.
At the NCA annual conference in Tampa (March), the industry consensus pointed to a near-record or record Brazilian crop. Multiple participants indicated they would defer purchases until the new harvest begins to enter the market. Sucafina noted that spot differentials for Brazilian coffee remain elevated despite futures weakness.
J.M. Smucker was upgraded to Outperform by Bernstein, reflecting expectations of declining green coffee costs. Conversely, JDE Peet's reported a roughly 27% increase in bean costs, with organic revenue gains offset by a 4.3% volume decline — evidence of emerging demand destruction at high price levels.
The H2 2026 outlook is dominated by the incoming supply wave. Brazil's 2026/27 harvest commences in May–June and will be the decisive factor for market direction. Rabobank projects an 8.64M bag surplus, with arabica prices declining by approximately one-third by Q4 2026.
However, the duration of the Hormuz crisis introduces a significant variable. Sustained energy price inflation, structurally higher logistics costs, and potential consumer-level demand erosion could limit the pace of price declines relative to initial analyst projections. If the strait is not reopened by mid-Q2, year-end forecasts may prove overly aggressive.
The coffee market is at the intersection of two dominant forces: a looming record crop and an unfolding geopolitical crisis. Tuesday's 7-week high and the subsequent Thursday–Friday reversal illustrate the market's structural uncertainty. Marex's 75.9M bag forecast reinforces the bearish medium-term supply narrative, while Hormuz-driven logistics disruptions and farmer withholding prevent an immediate collapse to year-end targets.
The Reuters consensus of year-end arabica at 225¢ implies significant further downside, but the path to that level is unlikely to be linear. Near-term, prices are expected to trade in a 280–320¢ range, with the May–June Brazilian harvest onset serving as the ultimate catalyst for directional resolution.
Trading Perspective: Near-term range 280–320¢. Break below 277¢ (weekly neckline) opens downside risk toward 220¢. Upside resistance at 320¢. Key monitoring points: Hormuz reopening progress, Brazil April–May rainfall, ICE inventory trajectories, CFTC managed money positioning, and Brazilian farmer pre-sale pace.
The Hormuz crisis impact on coffee is gradual rather than immediate. Rising oil, freight, and insurance costs will feed through to green bean import costs with a 2–3 month lag — a factor particularly relevant for Asian importing nations including South Korea. Proactive hedging and risk management are essential in the current environment.